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A Seasonal Reflection: Thanksgiving, Tradition, & the Start of the Holiday Shopping Season

Economic Update | Nov 24, 2025

Hosted by Andrew Toccaceli, RICP®, MRFC® and Coley Neel, CFA® | W.A. Smith Financial Group

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A Seasonal Reflection: Thanksgiving, Tradition, & the Start of the Holiday Shopping Season

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A Seasonal Reflection: Thanksgiving, Tradition, & the Start of the Holiday Shopping Season

Coley Neel CFA®

Published on Nov 24, 2025

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As we enter the final stretch of the year, the Thanksgiving holiday provides a natural moment to pause, reflect, and appreciate both the traditions that bind us and the shifting economic landscape that accompanies the start of the holiday shopping season.

Thanksgiving is more than a meal; it is a blend of American history, family celebration, and consumer behavior that helps shape year-end market trends. As we prepare for the upcoming celebration, we wanted to share a few key insights and fun facts to mark the season, along with a look at what this time of year means economically.

If you are anything like me, you are already getting bombarded with promotions for the upcoming shopping season and looking forward to scoring some “holiday deals” in the coming weeks.

The Spirit and Story of Thanksgiving

Thanksgiving’s origins trace back to 1621 when the Pilgrims and the Wampanoag People shared a harvest feast in Plymouth. Although the historical details are often simplified in modern retellings, the tradition of gratitude has been deeply ingrained in American culture ever since.

The First Thanksgiving by Jean Leon Gerome Ferris (Photo by Public Domain).

President Abraham Lincoln officially proclaimed Thanksgiving a national holiday in 1863, during the Civil War, hoping to foster unity and national healing.

Today, roughly 88% of Americans report celebrating Thanksgiving in some way, and the meal preparation has become a major cultural event. The average Thanksgiving dinner feeds 10 people, and nearly 46 million turkeys are cooked annually for the holiday, more than any other day of the year.

The cost of the classic holiday meal fluctuates with food prices, and economists even track the price of turkey as a lighthearted inflation gauge each fall.

A few fun facts:

  • • The average turkey weighs about 16 pounds, and Americans consume more than 1.4 billion pounds of turkey over the holiday.
  • • The iconic Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade began in 1924, making it almost as old as radio broadcasting.
  • • Over 50 million people watch the parade annually, either live or on TV.
  • • The Detroit Lions have played a Thanksgiving Day football game every year since 1934, marking one of the longest-running sports traditions in the country.
Fried turkey at a tailgate in 2011 (Photo by Paul Sancya/AP).

Black Friday, Cyber Monday, & the Modern Shopping Season

Thanksgiving now marks the unofficial kickoff of the holiday shopping season, a period that plays a major role in the U.S. economy.

Historically, “Black Friday” got its name in the 1960s as retailers used it to describe the day their revenues shifted from “in the red” to “in the black.” Today, the single day has expanded into a five-day retail marathon, beginning with Thanksgiving evening online deals and extending through Cyber Monday.

Black Friday Weekend.

Recent Trends Show a Shift in How Consumers Shop

  • • In 2023, Thanksgiving weekend shopping reached a record 200+ million U.S. consumers, the highest ever recorded.
  • • Online shopping continues to grow rapidly, and Cyber Monday is now consistently the largest online shopping day of the year in the United States, with sales surpassing $12 billion last year.
  • • Roughly 60% of consumers now start their holiday shopping before December, driven by early promotions and online convenience.
  • • The move toward e-commerce has also reshaped retail inventory cycles and supply chain planning. Retailers often earn a significant portion of their annual revenue between late November and Christmas, and strong holiday sales can influence overall market sentiment to close out the year.

Economic Insights: The Holiday Season’s Broader Impact

The Thanksgiving-to-Christmas period plays a meaningful role across several parts of the economy:

Consumer Spending

Holiday spending typically accounts for 20–25% of annual retail sales, with categories like electronics, apparel, luxury goods, and home décor seeing the biggest surges.

Labor Market Trends

Seasonal hiring increases sharply during this window, with retailers and logistics companies adding hundreds of thousands of temporary jobs to manage increased store traffic, online orders, and distribution center workloads.

Market Psychology

Investors sometimes reference the “Santa Claus Rally,” a pattern where equities have historically performed well during the final trading days of December and early January. While not guaranteed, it reflects the general optimism and spending momentum often associated with the season.

Santa Claus pays a visit on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (Photo by Brendan Mcdermid/Reuters).

A Moment of Gratitude

While Thanksgiving offers plenty of economic talking points, its real value lies in its reminder of gratitude and connection.

As we reflect on the year, this season encourages us to appreciate family, community, and the opportunities that lie ahead. From all perspectives — historical, cultural, or economic — Thanksgiving and the start of the holiday season remain meaningful markers as we prepare to close out the year.

As always, we would like to wish you and your family the very best during the holiday season, and we will continue to focus on providing you with Financial Peace of Mind.

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